The end of “happy globalisation”
Trade war, rearmament and the energy transition in retreat: states and trade unions faced with a world in crisis
Catherine SAUVIAT and Claude SERFATI
The end of the 2000s ushered in an era of uncertainty for the global economy, which Donald Trump’s policy continues to exacerbate, even as China challenges American hegemony. This new era is defined by three major challenges: trade war, regression of commitments regarding the energy transition and increases in defence spending to the detriment of social spending. While these three challenges affect the United States, the European Union and China differently, they signal the emergence of a world in which economic competition and geopolitical rivalry converge in dangerous ways. Faced with such upheavals, trade unions fluctuate between defending jobs, downgrading their expectations of a “just transition” and a mostly approving attitude to the accelerated rearmament of their respective countries.
Keywords: trade war, rearmament, defence policy, trade unions, energy transition.
United States
Trade unions faced with protectionism, defence spending and the halting of the energy transition
Catherine SAUVIAT
This article analyses the main three changes brought in by the new US administration since January 2025, at a time when China is vying to supplant the United States’ global hegemony. These changes include a sharp rise in customs duties, a massive increase in defence spending to the detriment of large social programmes for the poorest members of society, and the sudden halt of the energy transition. The article summarises the reactions and the issues faced by the American trade union movement at this radical turning point.
Keywords: United States, protectionism, defence spending, energy transition, social programmes, trade unions.
China
Sino-American rivalry and the refocussing of global production networks on South-East Asia
Clément SÉHIER, Aymeric MARIETTE and Muriel PÉRISSE
American motivations for recently adopted protectionist measures include a wish to counter the growing power of Chinese industry. Chinese leaders, conscious of foreign reliance on their country, match American sanctions while reinforcing other industrial partnerships. The ASEAN countries, particularly attractive for low-VAT sectors, are thus benefitting from an increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) in manufacturing. As such, American strategy runs the risk of reinforcing China’s central role in global production networks (GPN).
Keywords: China, global production networks (GPN), ASEAN, foreign direct investment (FDE).
Europe
New challenges for trade unions: the environment, security/defence and trade war
Philippe POCHET and Odile CHAGNY
This article analyses the ways in which the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) and IndustriAll cope with three issues now of central importance to the European agenda: climate, defence and trade. In a context defined by the war in Ukraine, geopolitical realignment and a re-examination of free trade, trade unions are refocussing their strategy on industrial policy, social conditionalities and quality jobs. While this new territory offers room for manoeuvre, the regression of social and environmental policies places trade unions above all in a defensive stance against deregulation.
Keywords: Europe, European Trade Union Confederation, IndustriAll, environment, defence policy, trade war.
Germany
An economic model under strain, destabilised trade unions
Marcus KAHMANN
As the largest economy in the Eurozone and heavily reliant on international trade, Germany is strongly affected by changes to the global political and economic order. As massive restructuring affects the industrial sector, the government has decided to commit to an unprecedented rearmament plan. This reappraisal of budgetary equilibria provides new arguments to those who consider that the German social model “is no longer financeable” and that “more realism” is required regarding the climate crisis. Trade unions are struggling to find answers for this novel situation.
Keywords: Germany, industrial sector, international trade, social model, austerity, climate crisis, trade unions.
Brazil
An energy transition at the expense of economic opportunities
Juliana CARVALHO MIRANDA TEIXEIRA
Faced with 50% tariffs on its exports to the US in 2025, Brazil is forced to reorganise its trade relations. This article analyses the economic effects of a return to specialising in the export of raw materials and agricultural products and the dilemma faced by trade unions, caught between protecting jobs and the green transition. It examines the country’s ability to convert this crisis into an opportunity to lead an inclusive green transition, moving beyond mere extractivism.
Keyword: Brazil, export, extractivism, raw materials, trade unions, jobs, green transition.
Canada
Escaping trade reliance on the United States
Axel MAGNAN
The brutal trade conflict initiated by Donald Trump, targeting Canadian export sectors (energy, automobile, metalwork), has caused great political and economic uncertainty in a country of which three quarters of exports are to the US. Public authorities and trade union organisations are implementing political and commercial responses and trying to limit the country’s reliance on its neighbour
Keywords: Canada, trade war, exports, business sector, trade union.
Italy
Trade unions faced with the challenges of trade war and the race to rearm
Cristina NIZZOLI
Against the backdrop of the trade war instigated by Donald Trump and the race to rearm led by NATO and the European Union, this article looks at the responses given by the government and analyses the positioning of Italian unions, whose traditional social demands are now accompanied by anti-war messaging. Significant strike actions against the war and against the genocide of the Palestinian people have been initiated by union rank and file.
Keywords: Italy, trade war, defence policy, trade unions.
United Kingdom
Trade-offs between military spending and social spending at the centre of decision-making
Jacques FREYSSINET
The installation in July 2024 of a Labour government armed with a programme of social reforms with funding contingent on stimulating growth makes the United Kingdom an outlier. However, the outlook has grown dim as the defence sector demands huge spending. The resulting austerity mainly falls upon social policy. While the union movement continues to support the government, it is mobilising against the regression of social protections and leaving member unions to be responsible for managing the sector-level effects of current changes.
Keywords: United Kingdom, military spending, social spending, austerity, trade unions, business sector.
Sweden
Large spending increases and budget stimulus: an atypical choice
Annie JOLIVET
Confronted with increased security and defence challenges and growth stagnation, the Swedish government has opted for a stimulus budget. Increases to defence spending enjoy broad approval and partially benefits Swedish businesses. Tax cuts for households and the lack of long-term measures are widely criticised, particularly by trade union organisations. The effects of American customs duty rises are short-term and differ between sectors.
Keywords: Sweden, customs duty, defence policy, budget stimulus.